Who will be the next Republican nominee?

Donald Trump’s extraordinary campaign follows his extraordinary term as America’s 45th president, which concluded when his supporters staged an armed attack on the Capitol. His exact role in instigating the attack and a broader effort to overturn results of the 2020 election, which he lost, resulted in two criminal indictments. He faces two others, totalling 91 felonies. The 77-year-old former businessman denies all wrongdoing. Mr Trump’s campaign pairs familiar culture-war issues (building a wall, “left-wing gender insanity”) with fresh grievances (against the lawyers prosecuting his cases and the judges overseeing them). He holds a commanding lead in the Republican race.

Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, entered the primary with momentum, cash and confidence that he could beat Mr Trump. The right-wing Republican served six years in the House of Representatives but made his name as governor, when he crusaded against “wokeism”, dismissed mask mandates and delayed schools closing during the covid-19 pandemic. The 45-year-old father of three young children, whose wife often joins him on the trail, has proved an awkward campaigner. His poll numbers have collapsed.

Nikki Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants, worked at her parents’ upmarket fashion boutique before running for state office. She became the first woman governor of South Carolina, her home state. She served as Mr Trump’s ambassador to the UN, but, given her appeal among relatively moderate and well-educated Republicans, has since become a favourite of Mr Trump’s detractors. On the trail she has criticised his chaotic leadership style, his comments on Israel (as too harsh) and China (not harsh enough), and more obliquely, his age. The 51-year-old insists America deserves “a new generation of leadership”.

Vivek Ramaswamy, a 38-year-old biotech entrepreneur, presents himself as a brash, contrarian outsider. The son of immigrants from south India, he has written books on subjects such as how “woke capitalism” is hypocritical and dangerous to America’s national identity. An ultra-conservative, he shares many of Mr Trump’s policy positions. The excitement around his campaign seemed to peak in the summer after his flamboyant performance at the first Republican debate. At the end of November his political director left to join the Trump campaign.