Who will fill the expelled George Santos’s seat?

George Santos last week became only the sixth member of America’s House of Representatives to be expelled from the chamber in its 234-year history. After his ejection, the disgraced politician did what any millennial would do: monetised his infamy on social media. Calling himself a “former congressional icon”, Mr Santos is recording personalised videos—from pep talks to birthday wishes—on the website Cameo. Although he faces 23 federal criminal charges, from wire fraud to identity theft, the 35-year-old will send brief clips to just about anyone with $400 to spare.

As Mr Santos enjoys his moment of notoriety ahead of what could be years behind bars, New York’s political class has already moved on. State law requires Kathy Hochul, the governor, to hold a special election about two months after the seat has become vacant. Mr Santos represented New York’s third congressional district (which extends across part of the North Shore of Long Island) for less than a year, but his victory, along with other pickups in the Empire State, were a rare bright spot for Republicans in an otherwise underwhelming midterm election cycle.

Both parties are carefully managing expectations for the race to replace him—arguing, at least for now, that the outcome shouldn’t have much predictive value for the 2024 general election. The political climate could change drastically over the next 11 months. Yet the truncated contest could still attract tens of millions of dollars in campaign spending. Joe Biden won the district by ten points in 2020, and Mr Santos flipped the seat with a similar margin last year. A win would boost morale and donor confidence on either side.

The race also has outsize policy implications for the 435-member lower chamber. House Republicans, already an unruly bunch, saw their four-seat majority shrink to three after Mr Santos departed. Mike Johnson, the new House speaker, has more goodwill with his caucus than his predecessor, but that relationship will be tested by fights over assistance for Ukraine and a long-term government-funding deal. Perhaps these battles will be over by the time the special election takes place, but Congress has a way of dragging its feet.

Democrats, for their part, will be eager to shake off their 2022 loss and show strength on New York’s Long Island. The Nassau County Democratic Party, which will select the nominee for the special election, is poised to pick Tom Suozzi, the three-term congressman whom Mr Santos replaced last year when Mr Suozzi ran unsuccessfully for governor. Republicans had yet to announce their candidate at the time of writing.

The campaign will focus more on policy and the new candidates than on Mr Santos. Republicans plan to return to the playbook from their successful 2022 campaign. “We’re gonna talk about the issues that voters care about, like the migrant crisis, like rising crime and like the economy that’s slowing down,” says a national Republican strategist.

Democrats are banking on a fresh political environment. Many will be relieved not to have Ms Hochul at the top of the ticket. The governor, who came to power after Andrew Cuomo’s resignation in 2021, won a full term by only six points in a state where Joe Biden trounced Donald Trump by more than 20 two years before. And if Democrats lose the special election they may have better luck in November, when a ballot initiative to codify abortion rights into the state constitution could drive Democratic turnout, as it has in other states since Roe v Wade was overturned.

Beyond the House, the Santos expulsion also has implications for the upper chamber. In September Bob Menendez, a senator from New Jersey, was charged with bribery. Following the precedent of expelling Mr Santos before a criminal conviction, many want Mr Menendez expelled from the Senate. John Fetterman, a Democratic senator from Pennsylvania critical of his colleague, asked Mr Santos to offer advice to a friend with legal problems, Bobby from Jersey. Mr Santos complied: “Stand your ground, sir, and don’t get bogged down by all the haters out there.” ■

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