Vladimir Putin cannot keep funding his war for ever

In March Vladimir Putin will hold a presidential election designed to demonstrate support for his regime’s invasion of Ukraine two years earlier. His achievements in those two years should not be underestimated. Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed, millions displaced. Most of them are Ukrainians fleeing Russian missiles. But as many as 1m educated Russians may have fled their country, fearful of repressions and mobilisation.

Mr Putin has strangled Russia’s nascent civil society, isolated the country from the West, made it more dependent on China and strengthened nato. Russia’s budget for 2024 shows a 70% increase in military spending, to 6% of GDP and a third of all spending. He has long framed his war in Ukraine as part of Russia’s struggle against the West, so even if fighting were to get less intense, spending will not go down.

So far, money has not been an issue. Re:Russia, a think-tank, reckons that in the war’s first year Russia received $590bn in export revenues, mostly from oil and gas. That is $160bn more than the annual average over the previous decade. In the second year, revenues were still some $60bn above that average. War costs are estimated at over $100bn a year. Turmoil in the Middle East, which could push up oil prices, would benefit Mr Putin.

This income lets him keep up the appearance of normality at home. But the longer the war goes on the harder this will be. To fight a long war, Russia needs more men, officers and weapons. That in turn will require mass mobilisation and central planning of military production. Neither is easy in a country with Russia’s poor demography and pervasive corruption.

Mr Putin will not have a problem declaring himself winner of the election. His problems may start afterwards, as the futility of his war exposes the hollowness of his triumph. That is by no means a given. But if Mr Putin’s hopes are dashed, Donald Trump does not return to the White House, and Ukraine continues to receive support, his problems will only mount. In the past Mr Putin dealt with any decline in his approval rating by starting a war. That option has already been used. ■

Arkady Ostrovsky, Russia editor, The Economist