Travellers face another year of disruption in 2024

Nobody enjoys starting or ending a hard-earned holiday by wasting hours in an airport waiting for a flight. Alas, that is what many travellers will face in 2024.

People have recovered their appetite for whizzing around the world. The UN World Tourism Organisation estimates the global number of travellers will be at 95% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, up from 63% in 2022, driven by a post-pandemic “revenge tourism” boom. Business travel is also rebounding faster than expected: the Global Business Travel Association now anticipates a return to pre-pandemic levels of business-travel spending in 2024, rather than its previous estimate of 2026.

For the airline industry, however, restoring capacity has not been straightforward. Reversing the mass lay-offs triggered by the pandemic is taking time. With demand for flights outstripping supply, prices have risen faster than inflation, padding airlines’ profits. But operations are buckling under the pressure. In America, the share of flights delayed continues to rise.

Flying will not be the only pain point for travellers in 2024. Cities around the world are cracking down on short-term rentals like those accessed through Airbnb. A new law that came into effect in New York in September requires hosts to register with the city and be present during a guest’s stay. Airbnb calls the law a “de facto ban”. Berlin, Paris and Rome have also implemented restrictions, and others including Vienna will follow suit in 2024. Municipal governments hope these curbs will ease pressure on rents and house prices for residents. For travellers, the result is less choice and higher prices.

China could yet throw out a wild card. The World Travel and Tourism Council, a trade group, forecasts that Chinese outbound travel-and-tourism spending will reach roughly nine-tenths of 2019 levels in 2024, up from half in 2023. But a flagging Chinese economy could derail that recovery. That would be bad for businesses counting on Chinese demand. For other tourists, however, it might mean a less crowded return to globetrotting. ■

Thomas Lee-Devlin, Global business correspondent, The Economist