The Middle East faces a series of sham elections

Judging by election cycles, the Middle East is a paragon of democracy. Egypt will hold an election in December 2023, followed in 2024 by Algeria, Iran, Mauritania and Tunisia. Sadly, with the possible exception of Mauritania, the elections will be farcical. Results are decided in advance. Autocrats will record huge victories and extend their rule—while the region’s more-or-less democracies of Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon and Morocco continue to flounder. Ah, but we offer stability, say the despots.

Think again. Denied the safety-valve of democratic participation, their regimes will be haunted by the spectre of insurrection. An Israeli-Palestinian war is reawakening the Arab street for the third time in a decade. Bearing the flag of Palestine, malcontents will challenge unaccountable and corrupt rulers. Only greater repression will stop a domino effect, starting with the Palestinian Authority, then Jordan and Egypt.

The Gulf states will also tighten controls. They view democracy as no less of a threat than jihadism. Under its laws, Saudi Arabia should hold municipal elections every four years. But Muhammad bin Salman, the de facto ruler, views them as a slippery slope that might lead to demands for accountability and representation.. No one dares ask him why he has veered from the timetable.

Gulf despots will continue to bankroll fellow strongmen in Egypt and Tunisia. President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi seeks to secure his third term by barring credible alternatives. Having locked up his rivals in Tunisia, Kais Saied, the incumbent, will win a second term. The Gulf states will also work with their nemesis, Iran, to prevent democracy spreading there. Ahead of parliamentary elections in April, the Council of Guardians will vet the candidates to ensure that only yes-men (and yes-women) can stand.

Kuwait’s democracy will limp on, paralysed by the stand-off between the royal palace and parliament. Armed factions will tighten their grip in Lebanon and Iraq. As Lebanon’s most powerful militia, Hizbullah will continue to veto the appointment of a president. Its counterparts in Iraq lost power in an election in 2021 but seized control regardless. They will not let democratic niceties get in the way.

Western powers will mostly watch from the sidelines. Having failed to spread democracy in Iraq, they have scant appetite to try elsewhere in the region. Aid for democracy projects will continue to fall. In a few places the demand for representation might rise again. But with grievances escalating and avenues for dissent largely curbed, the worry is that Hamas might offer an alternative model. Just as it was beginning to ebb, expect jihadism to surge again. ■

Nicolas Pelham, Middle East correspondent, The Economist