The BRICS are expanding

When the BRICS meet in Russia in October 2024 they will need a bigger stage than ever. Leaders of the five countries that gave their name to the bloc—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—will be joined by those from an additional six. The admission of Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will reflect how geopolitics is changing: the world is becoming more multipolar and middle powers more assertive in challenging the Western-led order. But the summit will also show the limits of what a heterogeneous “global south” can achieve.

In the 2010s the bloc was derided by the West. The economies of China and India grew rapidly but stagnation elsewhere meant the BRICS became synonymous with underperforming emerging markets. Other forums, such as the G20, were better places to thrash out thorny global issues. The BRICS lacked a purpose.

Not any longer. Rising tensions between the West and China, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, mean emerging powers see the BRICS as a vehicle for more independent foreign policies. For China, the driving force behind expansion, the bloc is a potential counterweight to the G7.

The group will forgo becoming brisiesauce and retain the brics name. It looks, at first glance, to be a formidable outfit, accounting for 46% of world population and 29% of GDP. It will include two of the three largest oil producers, and the most powerful countries in the Gulf, Latin America and, arguably, Africa. A bigger BRICS will have a louder voice to critique the Western-led order.

Yet the bloc is too economically diverse to embrace a currency union or free-trade area. Its members also have different political systems and contradictory strategic aims. So it will never have a unified position on, say, reform of the UN Security Council—due to be discussed at the organisation’s annual meeting in New York in September. Ultimately, the BRICS are the geopolitical version of Manchester United or Paris Saint Germain: 11 players that are less than the sum of their parts. ■

John McDermott, Chief Africa correspondent, The Economist