South Africa faces a defining election

Some of the happiest queuing ever took place in South Africa on April 27th 1994. On that day millions lined up to elect Nelson Mandela in the country’s first general election under multiracial democracy. Some 86% of eligible voters turned out.

But when South Africans go to the polls in 2024 there will be no sense of jubilation. The country is profoundly fed up with corruption, crime and joblessness. Analysts expect turnout to be even lower than the 49% who cast their ballots last time, in 2019. It is possible that less than a quarter of the post-1994, “born free” generation will bother to vote.

How many—and which—South Africans turn out will determine whether Mandela’s African National Congress (ANC) wins less than half of the vote in a general election for the first time since 1994. Under the country’s system of proportional representation, that would mean the ANC losing its majority in parliament and the possibility of a coalition government. But an even bigger question looms: what is the future of South African democracy itself?

In many ways life is better than in 1994. A liberal constitution protects rights and liberties. Most South Africans think racial tensions have eased somewhat. There is a basic welfare state. Black children do better at school. But there is justified disappointment with 30 years of ANC rule. Democracy’s benefits have been fewer than expected, and skewed towards the elites, white and black. When Ipsos, a pollster, asked people from 29 countries in 2023 about the direction of their country, only Argentina and Peru had a higher share saying things were going wrong.

And little wonder. South Africa’s rates of unemployment, murder and inequality are among the highest in the world. Adjusted for inflation, GDP per person is lower than in 2008. Electricity blackouts are frequent. Anyone who can afford private solutions to public problems pays for them. In 1997 there was roughly the same number of private security guards as police. Today there are almost four times as many.

Behind all of this is the mismanagement and graft of the ANC. Though corruption was at its most brazen between 2009 and 2018 under Jacob Zuma, it predated and outlasted the former president. The nature of the ruling party, which sees no distinction between itself and the state, and views the private sector as a malign force to be shaken down, means that patronage and venality are inherent to its modus operandi. At least 80% of South Africans believe that some or all people in government departments, municipalities and the presidency are corrupt, according to Afrobarometer, a pan-African pollster.

Other parties ought to be able to capitalise on this. The Democratic Alliance, the main opposition party, wants a “moonshot coalition” with smaller parties. But the compact will struggle to get anywhere close to 50% of the vote; its members are too dissimilar and its leaders too divided. For many black South Africans, who make up more than 80% of the population, the ruling party is still the devil they know. Those who stop voting for it often choose to stop voting altogether, rather than opt for another party.

So if the ANC can pick up enough votes using its formidable grassroots machine, it should stay in power, even if it requires a coalition with smaller parties. The widely feared scenario, in which the ANC’s vote share falls so low that it must team up with the Economic Freedom Fighters, an ANC offshoot led by Julius Malema, a rabble-rouser, is seen as unlikely. Despite failing to deliver the “new dawn” after Mr Zuma that he promised, Cyril Ramaphosa will almost certainly remain as president.

The lack of alternatives to the ANC reflects the poor health of South African politics. Some 70% of South Africans say they are dissatisfied with the way democracy works. A stunning 72% say they would ditch democracy for an unelected leader if he—and in the patriarchal world of South African politics, it would be a he—could deliver jobs and combat crime.

Since 1999 there has been a Mandela-shaped chasm in South African politics. The country is crying out for the sort of intelligent and pragmatic leadership he embodied. The ANC may have one last triumph in 2024. But the battle for the soul of South Africa is only just beginning. ■

John McDermott, Chief Africa correspondent, The Economist, Cape Town