Republicans are turning against Ukraine

WHEN VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, Ukraine’s president, arrives in Washington, DC, on September 21st he will find a changed American capital. Joe Biden’s White House and the Democrat-controlled Senate are firmly behind continuing to provide long-term assistance to Ukraine, just as during Mr Zelensky’s last visit in December. But the House of Representatives might not be as welcoming.

Controlled by Republicans since January, the lower chamber is now home to the most significant opposition to Ukraine in American politics. Although the party generally backs Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty, the data suggest an increasing number of Republican politicians could imperil future support.

Early in the war the American public showed immense support for Ukraine—and lawmakers listened. The Ukraine Democracy Defence Lend-Lease Act of 2022, designed to speed up the transfer of weapons to Ukrainian forces, passed the House in April last year with support from 196 Republicans (166 of whom remain in Congress). Only ten opposed the measure. Yet Republican opposition more than quintupled a few weeks later when the House appropriated $40bn for Ukraine’s defence.

Scepticism from Republican voters and lawmakers has intensified. In the November 2022 midterms Republicans narrowly won the House, bringing a crowd more sceptical about supporting Ukraine to Capitol Hill. Some fiscal conservatives baulk at the mounting price tag for assistance, and others see the foreign conflict as just another front in America’s culture war. Donald Trump’s mixed messages on Ukraine and Russia have emboldened the party’s isolationist wing, which expects the former president to pull back support if he returns to the White House.

Opponents of more aid made themselves heard this summer with amendments to the National Defence Authorisation Act. One, that struck $300m in Ukraine funding, drew support from 89 Republicans. Seventy supported a prohibition on all security assistance to the government in Kyiv, while 71 opposed extending the lend-lease authority. (None of the three amendments passed.)

Now a $24bn aid package hangs in the balance. Democrats in the Senate are hoping to pass the funding for Ukraine as part of a wider spending bill this month. They can expect support from a strong majority of Republican senators, who face re-election only every six years and are slower to respond to the whims of the party base.

But the House looks likely to oppose it. Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the House, perhaps best embodies his caucus’s ambivalent feelings about Ukraine. Mr McCarthy typically casts pro-Ukraine votes or abstains, and will meet Mr Zelensky at the Capitol. On September 19th the California Republican described Russia’s invasion as an “atrocity” on ABC News. But he also took a shot at the Ukrainian leader: “Is he our president? I don’t think I have to commit anything, and I think I have questions for him.” That is ominous for a country likely to remain at war and in dire need of financial and military assistance for years to come.