Latin America’s left-right divide may be disrupted in 2024

Latin America has long been dominated by left-wing political parties. During a commodities boom in the early 2000s, a series of left-wing governments in the region came to be known as the “pink tide” for their statist policies and social handouts boosted by a sudden influx of cash. This was followed, however, by a “blue tide” of right-wing leaders, such as Mauricio Macri in Argentina and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, who pushed back in the 2010s.

By the start of 2023 it seemed that another era of progressive politics had dawned, as 12 of 19 countries were run by left-wing governments. That represented a whopping 92% of the region’s population and 90% of its GDP. But 2024 looks set to be the year when the old divisions between left and right recede. Politics in the region will become far more complicated.

The first reason for this is the rise, in Argentina, of Javier Milei. A self-described “anarcho-capitalist”, the radical libertarian was due to go head-to-head with Sergio Massa, the economy minister, in the presidential election run-off on November 19th. A win would make Mr Milei the first avowedly libertarian president in Latin America (and, indeed, the world). His rise has been meteoric. Even in the event of a loss to Mr Massa, he has upended the status quo in Argentina, long dominated by the left-wing populism of the Peronist movement, by making free-market ideas popular. Much of his appeal is due to the fact he is an outsider: the economist and former TV pundit entered Argentina’s Congress only in 2021.

Mr Milei often talks in a populist mode. But his proposals are far more sweeping and radical than those of most right-wing populists. They include dollarising Argentina’s economy (and scrapping the central bank), slashing public spending by at least 15% of GDP and reducing the number of government ministries from 18 to eight. He talks of achieving a zero primary deficit (ie, before interest payments) within a year. And although Mr Milei is pro-free-trade, he advocates pulling Argentina out of Mercosur, a free-trade agreement. He regularly bashes the governments of Brazil and China, the country’s top two trading partners, for being left-wing.

The second reason for the new complexity is that many of the left-wing governments are going into 2024 with much weaker mandates. Consider Mexico. It has a presidential election in June. Claudia Sheinbaum, of the ruling Morena party, is likely to win. Ms Sheinbaum is seen as the hand-picked successor of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the president since 2018 who has combined left-wing rhetoric with fiscal hawkishness. Although most Mexicans think his record on issues such as public security, corruption and the economy is poor, he has high approval ratings, of above 60%. It is unlikely that Ms Sheinbaum, if she wins, will be able to sustain such high levels of support. She will have to compromise, work with the opposition and curb some of her more radical plans as a result.

Similarly, in Colombia, some believe the government of Gustavo Petro, that country’s first avowedly left-wing president, is unlikely to last until the end of its term in 2026. Mr Petro reshuffled his cabinet in April 2023, in order to try to push through his ambitious reforms of the tax, health and pension systems. But he has been stymied in his efforts. So far only the tax reform has passed, in a watered-down version. Mr Petro has also been tarnished by scandals involving members of his family and his staff.

In Chile, Gabriel Boric, a millennial social democrat who came to power on the back of huge protests against inequality, has seen his approval ratings drop because of rising crime and a weakening economy. He also backed an attempt to rewrite Chile’s constitution that faltered in 2022, with 61% of voters rejecting it in a plebiscite, many of them because they felt it leaned too far left. A vote on another draft is due in December 2023. Mr Boric has surrounded himself with capable politicians, but the wrangling over the constitution has overshadowed his presidency and limited his successes.

So it seems unlikely that any new tides, pink or blue, will sweep the region in 2024. Instead, Latin America seems set for a mixed political picture in the near future. Perhaps the biggest question is whether other countries will follow Argentina’s example—and include a wild card like Mr Milei in the mix. ■

Emma Hogan, Americas editor, The Economist