Indonesia will elect a new president in February

Indonesia’s president Joko Widodo is leaving his decade in office on a high. A relentless focus on curating his public persona, coupled with the country’s strong economic growth, means he is well-liked: his popularity hovers around 80%, according to surveys. That in turn means that Jokowi, as he is universally known, will be pivotal in deciding who the country’s next leader will be when the world’s third-largest democracy goes to the ballot box on Valentine’s Day 2024.

Prabowo Subianto, the current defence minister, is leading in the polls, with Ganjar Pranowo close behind. Yet as well as wooing the electorate, they must also court Jokowi. Both men have said they will continue his signature policies, including development of Indonesia’s booming nickel industry and other ambitious infrastructure projects, most notably carving a new capital city out of the jungles of Borneo.

Although Jokowi has not officially endorsed a candidate, many believe that he backs Mr Prabowo. The most obvious sign is that Jokowi’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming, was selected as Mr Prabowo’s vice-presidential candidate, after the constitutional court (whose chief justice is Jokowi’s brother-in-law) made an exception to the rule preventing candidates under 40 from running for president or vice-president. Mr Gibran was the only putative candidate under 40. Many observers decried the ruling as undemocratic and nepotistic.

The two front-runners are very different. Mr Prabowo is the leader of the Gerindra party, the third-largest in parliament. He lost to Jokowi in 2014 and 2019. Both times, he rejected the result. A former army general, he has been accused of human-rights abuses in the 1980s and 1990s—accusations he strongly denies. But many Indonesians do not know or care about Mr Prabowo’s past, and he enjoys strong support from the middle class. Known for his fiery personality, Mr Prabowo has emulated Jokowi’s soft-spoken style as he tries to win over voters.

Mr Ganjar, a former governor of Central Java, has the backing of the pdi-p, Jokowi’s party and the country’s biggest. He has a ten-year track record in Central Java, a key province, where he is popular, and has articulated a clearer set of sophisticated policies than any other candidate.

The third candidate, trailing far behind in the polls, is Anies Baswedan, a former governor of Jakarta and former education minister. Both Mr Ganjar and Mr Anies have selected running mates from rival factions of a powerful Muslim organisation, Nahdlatul Ulama, which claims to have over 100m members. It represents an important voting bloc.

In the unpredictable world of Indonesian politics, anything could happen between now and the election. Surveys suggest no candidate will win outright in the first round in February, so a run-off in June is likely. But Indonesian elections are won more on personalities than policies, so whoever wins, continuity is more likely than major change. ■

Sue-Lin Wong, South-East Asia correspondent, The Economist, Singapore