France will unify for sport but not for politics

The year 2024 will be when Emmanuel Macron seeks to re-establish his leadership in Europe, and France begins to look ahead to the race to succeed him. Both will take place against the backdrop of the Paris Olympics, which will serve as a global showcase for France and a test of its ability to come together as a nation at a fractious and volatile time.

In 2017 the freshly elected French president laid out his vision for a more “sovereign” and autonomous Europe in a speech at the Sorbonne. In 2024 Mr Macron will try to revive that pioneering drive. As Europe commemorates the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings, he will urge it to wake up to new geopolitical risks, not least the danger that America will again elect a president less committed to European security. Expect to hear plenty about European “strategic autonomy”. Mr Macron will also champion Ukraine’s integration into the EU and NATO.

His country, meanwhile, will start to think about his successor. In 2027, when the next presidential election is due, Mr Macron will have to step aside after two terms. The big question is who from the broad political centre can replace him and take on Marine Le Pen on the hard right.

Front-runners include Edouard Philippe, an ex-prime minister; Gérald Darmanin, the interior minister; and Bruno Le Maire, the finance minister. Polls suggest that Mr Philippe is best placed. But others will fancy their chances, including Jean Castex, another ex-prime minister, or even Gabriel Attal, the ambitious 34-year-old education minister.

Mr Macron will not endorse a successor this far ahead of the vote, preferring to show that his grip remains firm. His reform agenda at home will include an attempt to reach full employment and further dirigiste “green planning”, including investment in public transport, new nuclear reactors and battery production. A rebuilt Notre Dame cathedral will open five years after the fire. Ms Le Pen, for her part, will turn the vote for the European Parliament in June into a call for a mid-term sanction of Mr Macron. Her National Rally party could well top national voting, which would revive worries about a resurgent hard-right vote ahead of 2027. It could also prompt Mr Macron to ditch his prime minister, Elisabeth Borne.

Differences over the Israel-Gaza conflict will deepen political divisions. The main left-wing alliance may split. Worries about sectarian tension and anti-Semitism will also intensify. France is home to Europe’s biggest Jewish and Muslim populations.

Despite polarised politics, France will try to come together for the Olympics, from July 26th to August 11th. A glitzy opening ceremony will be staged in Paris along the River Seine. The lead-up to the games will be marred by arguments over unfinished transport lines, expensive tickets and terrorism fears. But once the action begins the French will enjoy the spectacle. Mr Macron will be sorely hoping that the unifying spirit can last. ■

Sophie Pedder, Paris bureau chief, The Economist, Paris