Europe’s elections pitch centrists against populists, again

Elections in Europe, to paraphrase Mark Twain, do not repeat themselves, but they do rhyme. From Germany to Italy to Slovakia, there is a familiar pattern. Centrist parties that have held power for decades increasingly vie against hard-right rivals that would once have been deemed beyond the political pale. It will be the same story on June 9th as elections for the European Parliament are held across the eu’s 27 member states. Nationalist parties of various hues will fare well, but the centre is likely to hold. Sensible policies emanating from Brussels on everything from supporting Ukraine to cutting carbon emissions should carry on (mostly) unchanged, after the customary fight over who gets what top euro-job.

Polls from Lisbon to Helsinki indicate that the centre-right (known as the European People’s Party, or EPP) should once again emerge as the largest bloc. But alongside fellow centrists of the centre-left (Socialists & Democrats) and liberals (Renew), it will probably lose a little ground. Hard-right parties such as those of Giorgia Meloni in Italy, Viktor Orban in Hungary and Marine Le Pen in France, by contrast, will pick up seats in the newly expanded 720-strong chamber.

The centrist outfits will probably have enough heft to cobble together a majority. That would be good news for Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission since the previous elections in 2019. Though the top job in Brussels is decided by the EU’s 27 national leaders, the European Parliament must then approve their choice. If the EPP wins most votes, Mrs von der Leyen will be a shoo-in for another five years. But a poor showing by centrist parties may force her to enter some kind of pact with hard-right parties to secure a majority.

Should Mrs von der Leyen stay on, expect more of the same from Brussels. Most notably, continued staunch support for Ukraine. Working with America, the commission helped craft 11 rounds of sanctions against Russia. Moves to bring the war-torn country and up to eight others (mainly in the Western Balkans) into the eu will continue, though it will be many years before formal accession.

More contentious will be the next tranche of carbon-cutting regulations. Populists across Europe grumble about green policies, and will fancy their chances if the EU elections are turned into a referendum on rapid emissions cuts. The EU’s commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 will require more money (of which Europe is short) and more regulation (of which it has a seemingly inexhaustible supply). Even the centrist parties sometimes balk at green plans put forward by Brussels.

The elections could also trigger spats over the top jobs. Mrs von der Leyen staying on would provide continuity. But her team of 26 commissioners, including powerful briefs guiding the bloc’s attempts at building an industrial policy, will be refreshed. There will also be a new president of the European Council, who chairs meetings of EU leaders and represents the bloc abroad, as Charles Michel, the Belgian incumbent, leaves after five years. A fresh foreign-policy chief will also be appointed and, across town, a new secretary-general of NATO.

The closer Europe gets to the vote, the more its own debates will be overshadowed by America’s elections later in the year. The mere prospect of a triumphant Trumpian candidate—especially The Donald himself—would turbocharge French calls for “strategic autonomy”, whereby Europe relies less on America for defence and other needs. For all the importance of the EU elections in June, those across the Atlantic in November will do more to determine the future shape of the union. ■

Stanley Pignal, Charlemagne columnist, The Economist, Brussels