Despite its sympathies, Egypt is unlikely to help Palestinian refugees

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THERE IS ONLY one viable way out of Gaza: through Egypt’s border crossing in the south of the enclave. Since the war Egypt’s government has kept it shut to refugees, though it has historically had sympathy for the Palestinian cause. Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, the country’s president, says that opening the border raises the possibility that Palestinians could lose Gaza, and become unable to return. But Egypt has more self-serving motivations, too. A rush of refugees from Gaza could revive the Muslim Brotherhood, the political Islamists who have long been the biggest internal threat to Mr Sisi. The country has also been severely affected by a mass movement of people caused by another conflict in the region (see map). That is putting pressure on Egypt’s fragile economy and making it all the more hostile to the idea of re-homing Palestinians.

Amid war in Gaza, the spotlight on a brutal civil war in Sudan has faded. Fighting broke out in April when Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, the leader of a rebellious paramilitary group, tried to seize control of the country from General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who leads the Sudanese Armed Forces. Since then thousands of people have been killed in fighting between the two groups, and more than 6m people have been displaced from their homes—around 1.2m of whom have fled across its borders.

In the first three months of fighting, Egypt received the highest number of people fleeing the war. More than 250,000 people sought shelter there, though the real number is probably higher. In greater Cairo the influx reportedly sent rental prices soaring. Resources are scarce elsewhere, too. Due to the government’s poor handling of the economy, annual inflation hovers at 36%. Many Egyptians are struggling to buy food. Public schools—underfunded and overcrowded—rely on support from the United Nations.

Egypt’s government cracked down in June on border crossings from Sudan, which has reduced the number of arrivals from 4,000 per day at the beginning of the crisis, to just 400 per week in September. By mid-July Chad had taken in more Sudanese refugees than Egypt (see chart). South Sudan now has too.

Were the Rafah crossing opened to Palestinians, the number of new arrivals would probably dwarf those from Sudan. The enclave, home to 2.2m people, is becoming uninhabitable: 12% of the buildings have been damaged, and one in 200 people have been killed. Thousands of Palestinians have already made their way towards the Rafah border in search of food, electricity, water and safety. In the 1950s Egypt treated many Palestinian refugees as equals (though naturalisation remained out of reach for many). Egypt has made clear that those days are long gone.■