Narendra Modi’s expected re-election will inspire fear and hope

In a speech on India’s independence day in August 2023, his tenth as prime minister, Narendra Modi declared the country to be at a turning point. A new world order, he told the crowds, was emerging in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic. India was poised to shape this new order, thanks to its “trinity” of demography, democracy and diversity. “The world can see a spark for itself in this beam of light that is emanating from India,” he said.

India may indeed be at a turning-point with a general election due in 2024—just not quite in the way that Mr Modi suggests. Since he took office, India has grown from the world’s tenth-largest economy to its fifth (it could be third by 2027). It has become a key partner in America’s pushback against China. But there have also been persistent allegations from critics at home and abroad that Mr Modi has repressed political dissent and marginalised Indian Muslims. The coming year could be critical for the future of India’s democracy—and its relations with the West.

Leaders of Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) deny eroding Indian democracy. They point to his 78% approval rating and his government’s record in tackling infrastructure, corruption and other problems that hindered growth under the Indian National Congress party, which ruled for 55 of the 76 years since India’s independence. The BJP says its “Hindutva” ideology seeks not to marginalise Muslims but to restore a national identity suppressed under Mughal and British rule.

Mr Modi’s opponents say he is undermining India’s secular constitution by pandering to its 80% Hindu majority while encouraging discrimination, and violence, against its 14% Muslim minority. They accuse him of harassing critics, muzzling journalists and eroding judicial independence. Such abuses, critics say, mask a slew of failures, including botched agricultural reforms and a shortage of good jobs, especially for young Indians.

Opposition concerns were spelled out recently by Rahul Gandhi, a Congress parliamentarian who was given a two-year jail sentence in March, later suspended by the Supreme Court, for mocking Mr Modi’s name. “The concept of India, the concept of free elections, the concept of free speech, they are now under mortal threat,” Mr Gandhi said. “We are now fighting for the soul of India.”

A BJP victory looks likely. In the last general election in 2019, it won 303 of 542 seats in parliament’s lower house, with 37% of votes. It now controls the central government and about half of India’s 28 states and eight union territories. But it has struggled in richer southern states. It lost Karnataka, a technology hub, to Congress in May.

It also faces a more concerted national challenge after 26 opposition parties, including Congress, formed a coalition in July, called the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA. Still, it will struggle to match the electioneering firepower of the BJP, which opinion polls suggest will win another majority, or lead a coalition government.

Either way, the political pitch could skew further in the BJP’s favour with a revision of electoral boundaries due in 2026. That could expand the lower house to around 753 seats, with most new ones going to populous northern states, where the BJP does well. Mr Modi has also proposed holding national and local elections simultaneously, in what critics see as another move to centralise power.

So far, Western countries have been reluctant to criticise Mr Modi in public. America, in particular, sees India as a partner in its efforts to counterbalance China. When Mr Modi visited America in June, President Joe Biden prioritised defence deals.

Privately, though, some Western officials worry that by failing to champion democratic values in India, they undermine their own efforts to defend the rules-based order against China, Russia and other autocracies. Western anxiety was piqued further in September when Canada accused Indian officials of involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh activist and Canadian citizen, in Vancouver. The Indian government has denied involvement.

In his speech in August, Mr Modi promised that India would be a developed country by 2047, the centenary of independence. For his domestic critics and foreign partners alike,  the question is not just how developed it will be—but how democratic. ■

Jeremy Page, Asia diplomatic editor, The Economist, Delhi