Mexico will elect its first female president

Mexico’s elections on June 2nd 2024 will go down in history. Never before have there been so many voters on the electoral roll or so many posts up for grabs. Mexicans will elect a new president and all 628 members of the two chambers of congress, as well as nine state governors, multiple local legislatures and other local positions—around 20,000 roles. And it is almost certain that the top job will go to a woman for the first time: both the ruling Morena party and the main opposition coalition are fielding female presidential candidates.

Despite the democratic significance of these elections, they are taking place under difficult conditions. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s divisive rhetoric and erosion of democratic norms have taken their toll. He has sought to weaken the authority of the Instituto Nacional Electoral, the electoral body. Though his policies have reduced poverty, the picture is nuanced. Social handouts have often been used to secure votes and the number of people with access to health-care services has declined on his watch. Reported murders, although still shockingly high at around 30,000 a year, have fallen slightly, but disappearances (mainly murders without a body) have risen significantly to around 9,500 a year.

The economy is stable, but Mr López Obrador’s anti-business actions have undercut the commercial benefits of proximity to the United States. The list of wrong-headed policies is long, including backing fossil fuels, empowering the armed forces and an ill-planned shake-up of the school curriculum.

But Mexicans may not see a radical change from their next president, who will assume office on October 1st. Claudia Sheinbaum, the Morena candidate, seems likely to prevail over Xochitl Galvez, of the opposition. Ms Sheinbaum, who was mayor (equivalent to state governor) of Mexico City from 2018 to June 2023, is the president’s protégée, and has promised to continue his idiosyncratic mix of policies.

She is, however, less confrontational than her mentor and would bring her own approach to governance, indicating she would be more business-friendly and environmentally conscious. Her administration’s adept management of security led to a faster drop in the murder rate in the capital than elsewhere.

She would also face more checks on her power. Morena and its allies are unlikely to win the super majority in congress that they had between 2018 and 2021, so negotiation and compromise will be necessary. Turbulence is likely, both before and after the elections. Criminal groups have become increasingly brazen, threatening and killing local candidates who refuse to co-operate with them. ■

Sarah Birke, Mexico City bureau chief, The Economist, Mexico City