Justin Trudeau wants a fourth term as Canada’s prime minister

The last time a Canadian prime minister won a fourth successive term, in 1908, the country boasted a population smaller than that of modern-day Toronto. Justin Trudeau, who has led Canada since 2015 and is now in his third term, is convinced he can eke out another victory. That is despite trailing the opposition Conservatives in the polls for most of 2023. If he can pull it off, he will have bested his father, Pierre Trudeau, who narrowly lost a fourth campaign in 1979.

The younger Mr Trudeau is not obliged to call an election until 2025, thanks to a pact his minority Liberal government struck with a smaller left-leaning party. Even so, the prime minister may well be tempted to go to the voters in late 2024, for two reasons.

The first concerns the economy. Since 2022 Canada’s central bank has increased its benchmark interest rate ten times in a bid to curb inflation. That put a damper on business activity and raised mortgage rates for new borrowers. The economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter of 2023. Canadians will have borne the brunt of the pain, however, before the campaign begins. The central bank reckons that by the second half of 2024 growth will have picked up and inflation will have fallen to below 3% (from 8% in mid-2022). Voters have short memories.

The second reason is more cynical, and relates to America. Mr Trudeau portrays Canada as a bulwark against populism, and Donald Trump has been a useful foil. A survey in 2020 found just 14% of Canadians would vote for Mr Trump if they had the option. If he becomes the Republican nominee, expect Mr Trudeau to brand Canada’s Conservatives as an offshoot of Trumpism.

Perhaps anticipating this line of attack, Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, has been wary of picking fights on culture-war issues such as immigration. In 2024 Canada is projected to admit 485,000 permanent residents—a new record. But instead of calling for a reduction, the 44-year-old opposition leader proudly touts his pro-immigration credentials. He often invites his wife, an immigrant from Venezuela, to join him on the stump. In his speeches he prefers to focus on bread-and-butter issues such as affordable housing and urban safety. So far he has kept a lid on the most excitable elements of his base.

But what happens south of the border always finds its way into Canadian public discourse. As America’s fractious general election in November draws near, expect Mr Trudeau to invoke the spectre of “northern populism” as a way of consolidating the left-of-centre vote behind his Liberal Party. It might not work. But for a government that is looking long in the tooth, it cannot hurt to keep attention focused elsewhere. ■

James Yan, Former staff correspondent, The Economist, Vancouver