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The World Ahead | By Invitation: Science in 2024

Jennifer Holmgren on the circular carbon economy

The head of Lanzatech says this is the year to get serious about it

image: Lauren Crow

By Jennifer Holmgren

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Carbon is a main component in the make-up of all living things. It is the primary ingredient in the threads in our clothes, the materials in our homes and the fuel we use to power vehicles. It is also the source of our biggest environmental challenges.

It is best known in its gaseous form, carbon dioxide, a potent greenhouse gas that is overheating our planet. Most of the carbon in the Earth’s atmosphere is a by-product of industrial processes like the production of fossil fuels, refining of petrochemicals and manufacture of metals which feed into our carbon-dependent global supply chains. This linear carbon economy is out of balance: it depends on energy-intensive industries to extract non-renewable resources underground to make necessary, yet disposable, things. Our “take, make, waste” system is deeply entrenched in society—but is untenable.

To protect life on Earth, we must reimagine this extractive, linear carbon economy as a circular model. We must rebrand the many forms of carbon-rich waste as valuable, abundant resources rather than inevitable, harmful liabilities. Instead of pulling virgin fossil carbon out of the ground to make things we discard, we can reduce emissions and make more sustainable products by capturing and reusing the gigatonnes of carbon already above ground.

Companies like mine provide carbon-recycling technologies to make this circular carbon economy a reality. We capture industrial-waste carbon at the source, preventing it from entering the atmosphere. We transform it into more sustainable versions of chemicals like ethanol, a critical ingredient for everyday products typically sourced from virgin fossil carbon. Our bioreactor hardware can be attached to any facility generating carbon waste, including oil refineries, steel mills and landfill sites. Four commercial facilities are already operational, with two more starting production by 2024. Combined, these six plants can abate 500,000 tonnes of carbon each year.

However, our industries are a long way from a truly circular carbon economy. To meet such a huge challenge, we need a gigatonne-scale solution. Getting there requires collaboration between consumers, industry and government to enact systemic change. We are running out of time, but we can make significant progress in 2024.

The decisions we collectively make over the coming year will determine how quickly we can redesign our carbon economy. If we let “business as usual” continue, we will bake in even more warming for years to come, and the extreme heat and natural disasters we saw intensify in 2023 will escalate. Wealthier nations causing the most emissions will have to foot the bill for poorer countries dealing with disproportionate impact.

If we decide to break free of the current system, we can invest the money for disaster relief into expanding circular technology. Forward-thinking governments are already making these investments, such as the European Union’s strategy for sustainable and circular textiles, and subsidies in America’s Inflation Reduction Act for technologies like carbon capture and utilisation. In emerging economies such as India, leaders are exploring carbon recycling to better control their domestic resources and supply chains.

Consumer education will be critical for this transition, as shoppers pay more attention to their purchases’ environmental impact. When people vote with their dollars, companies will offer more sustainable products. Global brands like Adidas, H&M Move and Zara already sell products made with recycled carbon, and in 2024 more options will come to market.

Some energy-intensive industries will embrace new circular technologies, and the local jobs that follow. Others will cling to the linear status quo by focusing solely on storing carbon emissions. To push back against industry’s call to inaction, we must support myriad solutions that accelerate the transition to more environmentally friendly business models.

To bring the circular carbon economy to life, we must resist the urge to do things the way we’ve always done them. Technology that got us into this situation will not get us out of it. If we commit ourselves to rethinking our systems, we can make meaningful progress toward a circular carbon economy in 2024. Let’s get to work.

Jennifer Holmgren, CEO, Lanzatech

This article appeared in the Science and technology section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2024 under the headline “Reinventing the carbon economy”

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