China is watching closely who will be Taiwan’s next president

On January 13th 2024 Taiwan’s voters will elect a new president. The stakes are high. Tensions between China and America may reach a critical point in the next four years. America’s intelligence agency, the CIA, has said that Xi Jinping wants China’s military to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Taiwan’s next president will determine the island’s strategy to prevent that invasion, and preserve its sovereignty and democracy.

Taiwan’s two main parties, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and opposition Kuomintang (KMT), have outlined opposing cross-strait strategies. The pro-independence DPP favours strengthening relations with America and its allies while building military deterrence through increased defence spending and reform. The pro-unification KMT promises to relieve tensions by reopening dialogue with China on the basis that the two sides of the strait belong to one country. The KMT has said that this vote is a choice between “peace or war”, while the DPP calls it a choice between “democracy or autocracy”. Both parties suggest that the other’s election will lead to Taiwan’s demise, either by provoking a Chinese attack or by accelerating unification.

China has long made clear which it prefers. The Communist Party calls the DPP “separatists” and has put sanctions on several of its leaders. Over the past eight years of DPP rule, Beijing has steadily increased its “grey zone” activity against Taiwan—aggression that falls short of warfare but probes Taiwan’s defences, such as cyber-attacks, disinformation and incursions into Taiwan’s airspace. After Nancy Pelosi, then speaker of America’s House of Representatives, visited Taiwan in 2022, China fired missiles over Taiwan in a mock blockade. If William Lai, the DPP’s candidate, wins in January, China may respond with a similar show of force or go further, enforcing a longer blockade, interfering with Taiwan’s internet or creating more crises in the Taiwan Strait.

A victory for the KMT, which has sent senior leaders to meet mainland officials and facilitates cross-strait exchanges, could reduce tensions in the short run. China might lift bans on Taiwanese agricultural products, which would allow the KMT to show Taiwanese voters it can deliver improved relations with the mainland. But China’s military build-up at home would continue—as would its determination to take Taiwan by force if it does not give up its sovereignty peacefully.

The danger of a KMT victory is that it might lull Taiwan into a false sense of security, just at the time when it most needs to prepare for potential war. Hou You-yi, the KMT’s candidate, says he is committed to Taiwan’s defence. But he has also said that he would roll back Taiwan’s recent reform of conscription, which is due to be extended from four months to one year in 2024. He has accused the DPP of inciting tensions with China and suggested that a KMT-led Taiwan would not need to strengthen its military, because it would no longer face a Chinese threat.  This may sound nice as a promise, but it is not true.

Taiwan’s current president, Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP, has had a more difficult and realistic message for her people: that in order to prevent war, they must unite and prepare for it. The aftermath of the 2024 election will show whether Taiwanese voters are ready to do so. ■

Alice Su, China correspondent, The Economist, Taipei